BJP Set For Landslide Win In Gujarat, Predict Exit Polls


Gujarat voted in the second phase of the assembly elections today.

New Delhi:

The BJP is set for a record sweep in Gujarat — the state it has been ruling since 1995 — seven exit polls have predicted, beating all concerns about possible anti-incumbency and shrinking numbers of the party. The Congress will finish second, and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party — which conducted a high-pitch campaign — will open account in the state, the exit polls predicted.

An aggregate of the exit polls indicate that the BJP could win 132 seats — a little short of the 140-seat target set by the party’s chief strategist Amit Shah. The party won only 99 seats in 2018, its lowest score in nearly three decades and just seven above the halfway mark.

The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine would win 38 seats and AAP – eight, shows NDTV’s Poll of Exit Polls, supporting speculation that that AAP’s entry could cut into Congress votes.

Exit polls, though, can often get it wrong.

If they got it right, this would be the BJP’s best showing in Gujarat, even beating the score of the 2002 election, held after the post-Godhra riots. That year, the BJP had won 127 seats, with a 48.5 per cent vote share.

The Republic TV-P MARQ has predicted the highest score — 128-148 — for the BJP. The Congress-NCP, it predicted will win between 30 and 42 seats — down from the 77 they won last time. AAP, it said, will get between 2 and 10 seats.

Data from News X- Jan Ki Baat shows 117-140 seats for the BJP, 34-51 for the Congress and 6-13 seats for AAP.

TV9 Gujarati predicts 125-130 seats for the BJP, 40-50 for the Congress and 3-5 seats for AAP.  

Besides a dismal showing for AAP despite its voluble campaign highlighting the Delhi model of governance, the exit polls have predicted a comedown for the Congress, which upped its game remarkably in 2018, confining the BJP to less than 100 seats.

That time, Rahul Gandhi had led the campaign from the front. This time, the senior Congress leader had barely set foot in Gujarat, breaking away from his Bharat Jodo Yatra for a day to hold just two rallies in the state.

The Congress, which lost Ahmed Patel, its pointsman in Gujarat to Covid, held a lacklustre campaign, which according to exit polls, has failed to sway the voters.

Bucking the trend in BJP-ruled Himachal Pradesh, all exit polls have also predicted a BJP victory there. Himachal Pradesh traditionally votes out the incumbent.

In Delhi’s civic elections, held last week, the exit polls predicted a massive victory for the AAP after three consecutive terms by the BJP.

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