Yamandu Orsi, mayor of Uruguay’s second-largest region, emerged victorious in the main left-wing opposition’s primary election, surpassing his rival Carolina Cosse, the mayor of the capital Montevideo. Meanwhile, Alvaro Delgado secured the position as the representative of the incumbent center-right coalition government, as revealed by Sunday’s election results.
Looking ahead to the general elections scheduled for October 27, with a probable runoff in November, the victor will face critical national issues. These include tackling high homicide rates, enhancing the social safety net, managing trade relations with China, and sustaining economic growth projected at nearly 4% this year.
Despite President Luis Lacalle Pou’s center-right coalition successfully navigating Uruguay’s agriculture-based economy through the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic impacts following the Ukraine conflict, polls indicate waning public support. Lacalle Pou, aged 50, has encountered difficulties in fulfilling promises to combat drug-related crime, impacting Uruguay’s reputation as a stable entity in South America. Concerns over the welfare system’s effectiveness and increasing corruption have also posed challenges for his administration.
Recent opinion polls show the center-left Broad Front coalition, which governed from 2004 to 2019, gaining momentum over the main center-right factions. “Today we have the formula (to win),” declared Orsi during his victory speech, suggesting that his former rival Cosse would join him as his running mate in the upcoming campaign.
Uruguayan pollster Cifra’s projections, the Broad Front commands 47% support as of May, placing it 15 points ahead of Lacalle Pou’s National Party, the predominant force within the ruling coalition. Despite this, the broader conservative bloc is anticipated to gather around 43%, highlighting a closely contested electoral landscape with approximately 10% of voters undecided.
Lacalle Pou remains personally popular, his administration has grappled with allegations of political espionage and corruption scandals within the cabinet. Notably, due to term limits, Lacalle Pou cannot seek immediate re-election, leaving his coalition to strategize under the stewardship of Alvaro Delgado, who emerged victorious in the recent primary race for the National Party.
Delgado, positioning himself as the continuity candidate, previously served as cabinet chief to the president and is expected to replicate Lacalle Pou’s “multicolor coalition” strategy that secured victory in 2019. His candidacy received backing from several presidential hopefuls of the smaller Colorado Party, aiming to thwart a return to power by the left, including party nominee Andres Ojeda.
Orsi’s presidential prospects have been bolstered by his experience and endorsement from former president José Mujica, an influential figure in Latin American leftist politics. Analysts view Orsi as well-positioned to secure the presidential nomination, advocating for “a modern left” that pledges to address poverty and inequality in Uruguay.
The primary vote, Orsi highlighted Uruguay’s current challenges, describing the nation as insecure and unequal. He vowed to champion progressive policies aimed at reversing these troubling trends.
Should no candidate secure over 50% of the vote in the October 27 election, a runoff will be held on November 19 to determine the next president of Uruguay. As the electoral campaign unfolds, Uruguayans are set to make a pivotal decision that will shape the country’s trajectory amidst a backdrop of evolving economic, social, and political dynamics.
