France’s far-right National Rally (RN) has surged ahead in the first round of parliamentary elections, marking a historic achievement and signaling a potential shift in the country’s political landscape. Led by Marine Le Pen, RN secured 33.1% of the vote, outpacing both a left-wing alliance at 28% and President Emmanuel Macron’s camp trailing at 20.76%.
The outcome of these elections has thrust RN to the forefront of French politics, positioning them close to the threshold of power. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of RN, expressed ambitions to become prime minister, contingent upon receiving widespread voter support in the upcoming rounds.
Never before has the far-right led in the initial round of French parliamentary elections, a development deemed historic by seasoned observers such as Alain Duhamel. The party’s ultimate goal is to secure an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. However, projections suggest that RN may fall short of this target in the upcoming run-off votes scheduled for the following Sunday.
Failure to achieve an absolute majority would result in a hung parliament, potentially stalling RN’s agenda on key issues such as immigration reform, tax cuts, and law enforcement policies. President Macron, despite initiating these elections following RN’s previous successes in European elections, now faces a challenging political landscape that could upend existing norms.
The heightened voter turnout of 66.7%, the highest for a parliamentary first round since 1997, underscores the significance of this election. It follows a brief but intense campaign period that highlighted deep divisions within French society over issues of national identity, security, and economic policies.
Post-first-round results show 37 RN MPs elected outright, with another 32 from the left-wing New Popular Front, demonstrating a diverse political spectrum among elected representatives. This diversity was evident in the reactions across France, with left-wing supporters expressing dismay at RN’s ascendancy and calls for strategic voting to prevent a far-right majority.
RN’s strong showing, President Macron’s Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, urged for a united front against RN, emphasizing the need to prevent them from achieving an absolute majority. Leaders like Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Unbowed echoed this sentiment, highlighting the stakes of the upcoming run-off as crucial for the future direction of French governance.
The rise of RN, from its fringe origins to mainstream electoral success, reflects broader discontent among French voters with traditional political establishments. They have rallied behind Marine Le Pen’s charismatic leadership and a platform that includes populist measures aimed at addressing societal concerns such as security and immigration.
Key alliances have emerged, notably between RN and segments of the conservative Republicans, illustrating a strategic realignment in French politics. Eric Ciotti, a prominent conservative leader, hailed this alliance as unprecedented, underscoring the seismic shifts underway in the political landscape.
Commentators such as Pierre Haski caution that the outcomes ahead are uncertain, with potential scenarios ranging from RN securing a plurality of seats to a more fragmented parliament with coalition challenges. The run-off elections will determine whether RN can convert its first-round success into a governing mandate or face a more complex political scenario.
Local dynamics will play a critical role in shaping the final outcomes, as voters weigh strategic considerations in contested constituencies. The prevalence of three-way races in the run-offs, owing to high turnout and diverse candidate standings, adds complexity to the electoral calculus.
The upcoming run-off elections will decide the fate of France’s parliamentary composition and the extent of RN’s influence in shaping national policies. As French voters prepare to cast their ballots once again, the country stands at a crossroads, with profound implications for its future political direction and societal cohesion.
